GROWTH
Top line decelerating.
+8.4% YoY versus +12.1% prior. 3y CAGR +48.1%.
+8.4%
Rivian Automotive, Inc. RIVN
Consumer Discretionary · Market Cap: $20.8B
Live price unavailable
Fundamentals as of 2025-12-31
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Consumer Discretionary · Market Cap: $20.8B
Live price unavailable
Fundamentals as of 2025-12-31
All analysis on this page is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Fair values are model-based estimates. Always do your own research.
The Question
Bottom line: RIVN currently has no legendary investor models qualifying — see /stock/RIVN/valuation for the per-model breakdown, but earns a D sector grade (30/100) in Consumer Discretionary. Use the per-tab analysis to form your own view. Drill into the valuation breakdown and sector ranking for the full picture.
Concerns — Rivian Automotive, Inc.'s -79.8% ROE is below sector median.
Financial story
Concerns — Rivian Automotive, Inc.'s -79.8% ROE and 2.25 debt-to-equity warrant a closer look at the underlying business.
How does RIVN compare?
RIVN's earnings calendar and history are tracked in the financials tab. Specific dates depend on company-published guidance.
RIVN is in the Consumer Discretionary sector. Sector ranking and peer comparison are in the sector tab.
0 of 6 legendary investor models rate RIVN a BUY. Fair value estimates and full investor breakdown are in the valuation tab.
Rivian Automotive, Inc.'s fair value depends on which model you trust. See the per-investor fair-value table in the valuation tab.
RIVN trades at -5.0x earnings. Sector context and per-investor signals are in the valuation tab.
RIVN and BURL differ on P/E, ROE, and revenue growth. See the full RIVN vs BURL compare matrix.
See exactly where RIVN ranks
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Sign in to see the rankingRIVN sits at #130 in Consumer Discretionary with a D grade (30/100).
Three-pillar deceleration story. Tesla's investment thesis has historically rested on three pillars: EV unit growth, energy storage scale-up, and AI/robotaxi optionality. Q1 2026 showed material deterioration in pillars one and two while three was explicitly deferred by management to a 2026-2027 timeframe.
The smoking gun is the Days-of-Supply jump from approximately 15 to 27 in a single quarter — a +80% increase in 90 days, the largest sequential build since Q4 2019. Tesla produced ~408k vehicles while delivering only ~358k, leaving roughly 50k vehicles in inventory. DoS is a leading indicator of pricing action: historically TSLA episodes with DoS increases above 40% in 90 days have been followed by price cuts within 1-2 quarters (Q4 2019, Q3 2022, Q1 2024 precedents). Price cuts in automotive compress gross margin near 1:1 because COGS is largely fixed once vehicles are built — the mechanism is near-deterministic, not speculative.
Forward implication: Q2-Q3 2026 likely show gross margin compression unless demand re-accelerates materially, which the article explicitly challenges. Energy storage deployed at 8.8 GWh vs 14.4 GWh consensus (~39% miss) removes the diversification cushion right when management most needs that narrative to hold. The non-GAAP EPS beat of $0.41 is low-quality: it came from regulatory credit revenue and cost discipline, not unit-economic expansion, and FCF compressed sharply per management commentary.
Counter-narrative: bulls argue the Cybertruck cycle is early, FSD v13 interventions per mile have measurably improved, and vertical integration in batteries/AI compute provides an Apple-like platform advantage. These are valid valuation theses justifying a premium multiple — but they don't refute the operating data points of this quarter. The multiple compression risk is explicit in the article: 'starts to look like a story-stock that out-promised'. An ambitious robot TAM does not retroactively justify a delivery miss; it shifts the burden of proof to the next earnings cycle while the bridge cash flows from EVs are exactly what's now under pressure.
