Philip Morris International Inc. PM

At about $184.30 on June 20, 2026, Philip Morris trades near 26 times trailing and 22 times forward earnings — roughly a 70% to 80% premium to British American Tobacco (~13x) and Altria (~12x). The reason is growth: smoke-free products (IQOS and ZYN) reached 43% of net revenue last quarter, and the international smoke-free business grew almost 25%, so the market values PMI as a consumer-staples grower rather than a declining cigarette maker. That premium, near an all-time high, leaves little room for a smoke-free stumble.

ZYN shipments fell 23.5% in the first quarter of 2026, to about 155 million cans — but management attributes the drop to wholesalers drawing down emergency inventory built during the prior shortage, not to weaker demand. Consumer offtake measured by Nielsen still rose about 10%, and ZYN holds roughly 70% of the US nicotine-pouch market. The key question for 2026 is whether second-quarter shipments re-converge with offtake as new US factories in Colorado and Kentucky ramp.

Yes — as of the first quarter of 2026, IQOS overtook Marlboro to become Philip Morris's largest brand by revenue, a milestone for a company built on cigarettes. IQOS heated-tobacco unit shipments grew 11.3% and the platform holds about 77% of the global heat-not-burn market. Smoke-free products as a whole reached 43% of net revenue and, because they earn roughly two and a half times the gross profit of a cigarette per unit, contribute a comparable share of PMI's gross profit.

Philip Morris pays $5.88 a share annually after raising the quarterly dividend to $1.47, a yield of about 3.2% at the $184.30 price. The company has increased the payout every year since its 2008 spin-off from Altria — more than seventeen straight years. The dividend runs near 70% of this year's expected adjusted earnings of about $8.4 a share, and is covered by roughly $10.7 billion of trailing free cash flow, though the cushion is thinner than at lower-payout peers.

On June 2, 2026, Philip Morris trimmed its reported (GAAP) diluted EPS outlook to $7.18–$7.33, mainly to absorb a roughly $500 million non-cash impairment of its deconsolidated Canadian affiliate, RBH, plus a weaker Russian ruble. Its adjusted EPS outlook, which excludes the impairment, held near $8.3 to $8.5 — about 11% growth over 2025. Because essentially all of PMI's revenue is earned abroad, currency swings move the reported number more than the underlying business does.

The 12-month consensus price target is about $194 across 15 analysts, only a few percent above the $184.30 price, in a range from $168 to $210. The most bullish published call is Citigroup at $210; the lone cautious holdout is UBS at $168 with a neutral stance. Separately, conservative intrinsic models anchored to PMI's roughly 8% earnings history place fair value nearer $150 to $173 — below the price — a sign the stock already discounts much of the smoke-free future.