Top line stable.
+15.8% YoY versus +15.7% prior. 3y CAGR +12.6%.
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Communications · Market Cap: $325.8B
Fundamentals as of 2026-03-31
All analysis on this page is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Fair values are model-based estimates. Always do your own research.
1 of 3 legendary models say BUY NFLX — but Peter Lynch & Charlie Munger disagree.
What would legendary investors pay for NFLX?
These figures are not quotes or opinions from Buffett, Graham, Lynch or the other investors. They are our own estimates, computed by applying the intrinsic-value formulas each investor is known for to this company’s financials.
For educational purposes only. Not a recommendation to buy or sell securities.
Bottom line: NFLX is flagged as overvalued by 2 of 3 legendary models, with 1 BUY and 0 HOLD, but earns a C sector grade (58/100) in Communications. Whether the premium is justified depends on which lens you trust. Drill into the valuation breakdown and sector ranking for the full picture.
The Question
Yes — Netflix, Inc.'s 43.0% ROE ranks above the S&P 500 median, and D/E 0.96 stays within healthy bounds.
Financial story
Yes — Netflix, Inc.'s 43.0% ROE shows strong capital efficiency, and its 0.96 debt-to-equity stays within healthy bounds.
Because about $2.8 billion of the profit came from a one-time fee, not from operations. Netflix collected a $2.8 billion termination fee from Paramount after walking away from its bid for Warner Bros. Discovery; it was booked below the operating line in "interest and other income," which normally runs about $45–50 million a quarter. Operating income — the part from subscriptions and ads — grew 18% to $3.96 billion. Net income reached $5.28 billion, but roughly $0.53 of the $1.23 diluted EPS was the fee, so the "clean" quarter was nearer $0.70.
Netflix trades near 22 times its expected 2026 earnings of about $3.59 a share, and roughly 26 times trailing earnings. That forward multiple sits below the stock's ~30x five-year average, which is why some frame it as re-rated rather than rich. But the trailing 26x is flattered: strip out the one-time $2.8 billion Warner Bros. fee and the clean trailing multiple is closer to 31x. The market is paying a premium-but-compressed multiple for 12–14% revenue growth and operating margin guided to 31.5% in 2026.
Netflix stopped disclosing quarterly paid-membership counts at the start of 2025, shifting attention to revenue and engagement instead. The last figure it confirmed was roughly 325 million subscribers at the end of 2025, and external estimates since then are not official. Management now leads with revenue (guided to $50.7–51.7 billion in 2026, up 12–14%), operating margin (31.5%), and an internal engagement metric it says hit an all-time high in Q1 2026. The change retired the very number bulls once rallied on.
Three engines: advertising, pricing, and live programming. The ad business roughly doubled to more than $1.5 billion in 2025 and is guided toward $3 billion in 2026, now on Netflix's own ad technology, reaching over 250 million monthly viewers. Pricing added a second lever — a U.S. increase in March 2026, the second in under two years, lifted the ad-free Standard plan to $20. Live rights (NFL Christmas games, weekly WWE, and a new MLB package) deepen engagement and feed the ad tier. Even so, advertising is still only about 6% of revenue.
The biggest is earnings quality: about $2.8 billion of recent profit was a one-time fee, so clean earnings sit well below the headline $1.23 a share. Management's own guidance also bends revenue growth from +17% in 2025 to +12–14% in 2026, and Q2 was guided below Wall Street. Content spending climbs toward $20 billion as live-sports rights ramp, advertising is still only ~6% of revenue, and YouTube already outdraws Netflix on the TV screen (about 12.7% vs 9% of U.S. viewing). Regulators also just cleared Paramount's roughly $110 billion takeover of Warner Bros. Discovery.
It shows Netflix chose discipline over scale — and was paid $2.8 billion for it. Netflix had agreed to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery, but when Paramount Skydance topped the bid (around $110 billion), Netflix declined to match, calling it no longer financially attractive, and collected the contractual breakup fee in February 2026. The cash receipt lifted Q1 free cash flow to $5.09 billion and let Netflix raise its 2026 cash-flow guide toward $12.5 billion. The cost of that discipline is a bigger, better-capitalized streaming rival once the deal closes.
How does NFLX compare?
Strength. 32.3% operating margins, an ad business guided to double toward $3 billion in 2026, and a second price increase in two years that engagement absorbed without flinching. The market quietly re-rated a growth name into a cash compounder — and now pays about 22x next year's earnings for that margin curve to keep bending.
Risk. $2.8 billion of the quarter's record profit was a breakup fee for *walking away* from the Warner Bros. deal — booked below the operating line, not earned from a single subscription. Strip it out and earnings nearly halve, even as management's own guide bends 2026 revenue growth from +17% to +12–14%. What is the ~22x multiple really paying for?
See exactly where NFLX ranks
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Sign in to see the rankingNFLX sits at #11 in Communications with a C grade (58/100).

| Firm | Target | Upside | vs. price | Rating | Recent move | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
![]() Bank of America Jessica Reif Ehrlich | $125 | +62% | Buy | reiterated | May 18 | |
RB Robert W. Baird | $120 |
| +55% |
| Outperform |
| lowered 150->120 |
| Jan 23 |
WE Wedbush Alicia Reese | $118 | +52% | Outperform | raised 115->118 | Jun 5 |
MS Morgan Stanley | $115 | +49% | Overweight | raised | Jun 8 |
KE KeyBanc Justin Patterson | $115 | +49% | Overweight | raised 108->115 | Jun 9 |
MO MoffettNathanson | $115 | +49% | Buy | lowered 120->115 | Jun 17 |
JE Jefferies James Heaney | $110 | +42% | Buy | lowered 128->110 | Jun 10 |
+15.8% YoY versus +15.7% prior. 3y CAGR +12.6%.
+15.8%Net margin 24.3% versus 22.3% prior (+2.0pp). Operating 29.5%.
24.3%P/E 26.5x — 33% below the 5y median of 39.7x. Forward 21.7x hints at EPS expansion next year.
26.5x